Assessment of Outlook – 201 8 and Beyond – Forecast Summary for the U.S. and the Rest of the World, Highlights of Key Issues, and Identification of Risks
"Forecasting accuracy, which is always difficult, becomes much more so when the economy is strong and above the long - term sustainable trend level, which is the situation in which the U.S. economy finds itself curren tly. The difficulty in forecasting involves pinpointing the turning point. Almost no one does this well. Recession forecasting models are relatively crude and forecast lead times have been very short. What we know from experience is that recessions occur w hen the economy becomes overheated. The timing of onset, however, depends upon human psychology. And, when human psychology is highly positive, as it is currently, it tends to feed upon itself and sustain momentum."